“The more you know, the less you know.”
This can describe the NFL landscape in many years. There are countless examples of teams that became Survivor Pool “pick against” teams early in the season, only for those teams to rise up out of nowhere and steal a win in October or November.
As an example, last year the New York Jets started 0-7. At this time last year, they were a highly popular “pick against” team in Knockout Pools. On the last football Sunday in October 2025, though, Aaron Glenn’s boys upset the Bengals, 39-38, ruining plenty of Survivor Pools.
The 2021 Detroit Lions are a great example as well. Those Lions did not earn their first win of the season until early December. By the time November of that year rolled around, they were most everyone’s “pick against” team each week in Survivor Pools.
So before you pick against the winless Chargers or Titans this week, at least do a little research.
Most bad teams eventually find a way to win at least one or two games during the course of a season.
NFL Week 6 implied probabilities
Here are NFL Week 6 implied probabilities for all of the favorites at Fanatics Markets.
- Cardinals at Rams: Rams 88%
- Chargers at Chiefs: Chiefs 79%
- Commanders at 49ers: 49ers 78%
- Jets at Patriots: Patriots 76%
- Titans at Colts: Colts 75%
- Ravens at Browns: Ravens 69%
- Bills at Raiders: Bills 68%
- Seahawks at Broncos: Seahawks 57%
- Texans vs. Jaguars: Jaguars 57%
- Steelers at Buccaneers: Steelers 56%
- Cowboys at Packers: Packers 53%
- Saints at Giants: Saints 52%
- Bears at Falcons: Bears 52%
- Panthers at Eagles: Panthers 51%
Cardinals at Rams
Arizona has already spoiled plenty of Survivor Pools this season, as it beat the Chargers, 26-14, in Week 1. In hindsight, that result wasn’t too shocking as we now know that the Chargers are terrible this season.
The Cardinals again looked decent in Week 3 as they hung around with the 49ers before ultimately losing, 36-30.
The last two weeks for Arizona have been brutal, however, as it fell to the Giants (36-24) and Lions (45-21).
The Rams are a massive -12.5 favorite over the Cardinals this week.
Chargers at Chiefs
Losing that opener to the Cardinals, and losing in Week 2 to the Raiders was simply devastating for the Chargers. It created a snowball effect as Jim Harbaugh’s crew then had to play at Buffalo, at Seattle, and then host Denver. The Chargers kept each of those games against Super Bowl-calibre competition relatively close.
Is this the week they finally break down the door?
For what it’s worth, the Chargers did go 2-0 against the Chiefs last season.
Titans at Colts
Plenty of people will be using the Colts as their Survivor Pool pick this week as the Titans are 0-5.
It is tough to find anything to like about the Titans right now. Tennessee is scoring an NFL-worst 11.6 points per game. Its defense is decidedly mediocre, giving up 21.8 points per game (12th in the NFL).
That said, this is a divisional battle, and the 2-3 Colts haven’t exactly been knocking anyone’s socks off lately either.
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