The Arrival: 5 NBA Players Primed To Finally Break Out Next Season

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The potential never left Jeff Green to arrive. What chased it away temporarily was a trade to an already playoff-ready team in 2011 that robbed him of a role and heart surgery that took his entire lockout-shortened season. This season he got the minutes, he found comfort in Doc Rivers’ rotations and turned in a year that, while not without its bumps and shoddy defense, showed why Green is primed to become a go-to forward (whether small or power) in the eventual post-Pierce/Garnett era. Ever since his trade from Oklahoma City there was a sense he was an outsider, and played like it as a master of deference. At some point this season, whether spoken by Pierce and KG or assumed in the wake of Rajon Rondo’s knee injury, Green realized it was okay to takeover. What resulted was flash (43 points against Miami in the first game after Rondo’s injury) girded by underlying consistency, too, with an average of 16.5 points on 50 percent shooting and 43 percent from three in the season’s final 39 games. During that time Green became the focal point of one of the team’s favorite plays – as scouted by SB Nation’s Mike Prada – where he runs from the corner for a handoff at the arc’s wing and attacks the rim after a screen. Even with Pierce and Garnett still on the roster, he’s the only player who can pull off that move right now. He’ll get many more opportunities next year, too.

In the wake of a $31 million, five-year contract in 2012, Wilson Chandler is clearly not being slept on. His game, too, has never been opaque the way teammate JaVale McGee’s still is. (Denver assistant Melvin Hunt has called Chandler’s style “straight lines.”) Two things set up a big 2013-14 season, however: Danilo Gallinari’s torn ACL and Corey Brewer’s expiring contract. Beginning April 6, Chandler assumed Gallinari’s starting forward role and flourished in the extra minutes, averaging 20.2 points, 6.0 boards and 52 percent from the field and 44 percent from three. He even improved in some areas where Gallinari struggled, leading all guards in total rebounding rate this season. Chandler wasn’t the same in the playoffs, but that’s more the case that defending the Warriors backcourt is an exceptionally hard assignment for a series rather than a sign Chandler’s success was fool’s gold. As for Brewer, while he and Chandler worked wonders together as reserves, their similar length and disruptive defense makes them somewhat redundant. If Brewer isn’t re-signed and Gallo’s rehab keeps him out possibly until after the 2014 All-Star break, Chandler will reap the benefits.

The entire 2012-13 season felt like a pick-up game between strangers for Houston. For the first two months it was as if Kevin McHale stuck five guys together who’d known each other for only several minutes and gave them a loose directive: “Let Harden shoot.” Put another way, after an insane summer of stockpiling a dozen forwards, the deal for Harden early and another for Thomas Robinson at the deadline, it felt as if Houston was a weigh station for dozens of players last season – a sort of Grand Central terminal for those coming or going – where continuity went to die. Omer Asik was not only a defense-and-rebounding rock despite the noise, he’s on All-Star pace next season because of the roster’s greater familiarity with the top 11 players under contract. As the total rebound leader in the NBA last season and a top-10 ranking in each of the offensive, defensive and total rebounding rates, he held firm to his reputation. Still, he’ll likely improve now that he understands the rigors of being a starter and his offense will gradually get better. Often McHale will use a Mike D’Antoni-esque concept of four shooters and a post running high pick-and-rolls, where Asik’s job is to race to the rim after a screen. He already scored five points more per 36 minutes than ever before last season; give him a summer to improve and that could jump to a 15-and-15 player come the fall.

If Tiago Splitter could have wriggled out of his Spanish league contract, the 6-11 forward/center would likely have been a top-10 pick well before his eventual drafting in 2007 by San Antonio. Even then, he didn’t play in a Spurs uniform until 2010. That, however, is the luxury a franchise as well-run as San Antonio can afford, and in turn, is about as desirable a transition to the NBA as Splitter could have hoped for. After that enviable apprenticeship under Tim Duncan and more responsibility this season with 24.7 minutes per game, Splitter now enters unrestricted free agency ready to cash in and take a starting role after his 15.1 points, 9.3 rebounds per 36 minutes and 61 percent true shooting. Think of the role Houston’s Asik has blossomed in after bolting Chicago a year ago, but with more offensive capability. Just like Asik, Splitter has a wonderful foundation of fundamentals after tutoring under a remarkable head coach; should he decide to leave San Antonio, having that stamp of approval from a Gregg Popovich-coached team will be as attractive for suitors as his 20 percent defensive rebounding rate.

If you happened to turn off your NBA coverage in February you have every reason to be incredulous that Mike Conley is on the cusp of becoming an All-Star point guard. If you (especially you Grizzlies fans) stuck with Conley since then, you’ve seen a Memphis offense go from something as out-of-sorts as a teenager learning a stick shift and turn into a, gasp, thing of fast-paced beauty. By cutting out Rudy Gay, the middleman was eliminated from Memphis’ attack and allowed elite posts Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol to get more touches and Conley to work with a larger canvas without the crutch of always feeding Gay. Memphis still will not win in an NBA 4x100 relay, but Conley’s improvement has been breathtakingly rapid. After averaging 13.0 points and 5.7 assists per game before the trade he enjoyed a steady rise after, but has taken a leap forward to 17.6 points, 7.6 assists and nearly double the rebounds as before – all while playing essentially the same minutes per game. It’s an out-of-nowhere leap that has him set to arrive at an All-Star level from the jump next fall, a place that now feels perfectly justified after seeming like a conspiracy theory-level long shot just three months ago.

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The Arrival series is made possible by the new Heineken Star Bottle.